It looks like I’ve been missing in action on this blog for quite sometime. It’s summer and between mowing, gardening and spending time at the cabin, I can’t seem to keep up with the computer work. I am posting a letter to the editor I recently sent to my newpaper in response to another letter that was printed. Hope to get back to posting more soon!
In response to Matt Armstrong’s letter:
Consensus is formed on the basis of many things–money, politics, power. It may start out based on facts, but can digress at any point if a new factor outweighs the others. Climate science seems to have digressed.
Scientists since the mid-19th century have been examining CO2 and its effects on temperature. That just means it’s not a new idea, not a correct one. Newton studied alchemy.
Even the IPCC admits there’s a pause or slowing in temperature. Berkeley Earth put out a paper on it. One can call it a slowing down or a pause. However, models did not predict any such slowing in any of the projections. Models all showed a consistent rise.
The use of the term “denialist” is indicative of a person with a very, very weak case. People who know their ideas are valid present their case and let the data and methodology speak for itself.
In spite of claims to the contrary, models lack sufficient resolution to incorporate clouds, a very important greenhouse factor. So “parameterization” is done. You don’t know the value, so you just use a number to represent this. Values varying from model to model. Also, natural phenomena like El Nino and La Nina cannot be included in the models. The models the IPCC used and most climate modelers used showed far more warming than actually occurred, meaning the models have serious flaws. The latest IPCC document, in the science section, admitted that models cannot forecast with any degree of certainty: “– Projections of future climate change are not like weather forecasts. It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short- term weather forecasts.”