Non-trends and politics

First, the “non-trend”.  I am reproducing here an article in full from http://www.notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com.  (I rarely do this, but for the purpose of having all information here for discussion, I did so.)  Please visit the blog for more interesting articles on US precipitation, and other climate change topics.

UK Precipitation Trends

OCTOBER 26, 2013

By Paul Homewood

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The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, in conjunction with The European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), have published a report, “Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation”, which makes the usual claims that extreme weather events are on the increase.

One of their claims concerns winter rainfall:

Winter rainfall has decreased over Southern Europe and the Middle East, and has increased further north. The latter increase is caused by a pole-ward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track. Short and isolated rain events have been regrouped into prolonged wet spells.

But have we seen this effect in the UK?

Winter rainfall has increased since the 1960’s, but only back to levels seen earlier in the 20thC. Even further north in Scotland, the pattern is similar.

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

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Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University has looked at long term precipitation records for the UK, and concludes that the period from the 1960’s to the 1990’s was an unusually dry one, so there is nothing to suggest that current levels of rainfall are in any way unusual. (Remember that this period coincides with the cold phase of the AMO, that leads to drier conditions in the UK – see here.)

Let’s finish by looking at rainfall intensity, which the EASAC paper suggests is getting worse.

As with overall rainfall totals, we see an increase in the average rainfall per rainday since the 1960’s, but no increase at all in the last 20 years. Indeed, if anything there is a decline. We also see the same sort of pattern with the number of raindays. (Met Office data for raindays only starts in 1961)

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I can make no comment about the rest of Europe, but it is clear that the report’s findings on this particular topic have no factual basis in the UK.

References

All data from the UK Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

End of http://www.notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com post

Political commentary (since WtD is now addressing politics, I thought I might too on occasion

There was a headline:  

Kerry ‘Amazed’ That Some Americans Still Don’t Grasp Urgency of Global Warming

Secretary of State John Kerry expressed his frustration Tuesday with the fact that even in the United States, “a very educated country,” there are those who do not recognize the urgency of combating global warming. 

(See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/kerry-amazed-some-americans-still-don-t-grasp-urgency-global-warming)

First, one must question if a “very educated country” elects a pathological liar as president twice.  

Second, if we are to “do the maths” as McKibben says, one can see where a country where the president can say with a straight face that increasing the debt limit does not increase the debt would be dream land for the AGW crowd.  Sadly, even if we weren’t bright enough to detect pathological lying, it appears maybe too many people here can still do math well enough to know the debt limit increase does increase the debt and the AGW numbers add up to broken theories and societal poverty.

Third, for those of you who will doubt my second statement:  check out    http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/my-advice-to-californiansget-out-now.html and see what going green has done for California.  The green dream results in large exoduses of people and decreasing standards of living in a very short time. Soon, California will look like Detroit and be demanding those states that use evil fossil fuels bail them out. Personally, I would like to see any state that demands the use of alternative worthless energy sources not allowed to buy electricity from any fossil fuel sources and it be forbidden to bail out their economy after the climate change gurus have bankrupted it. Actions should have consequences, though, sadly, there will be an attempt to hide all the consequences in the hopes no one will recognize the utter failure of “sustainable” energy.

Fourth, for those of you who still believe those who advocate “green policies” for saving the planet, you need to keep this in mind when reading about all those who freeze to death due to fuel poverty in England this year, or froze to death last year for that matter, that many, many greens care nothing about who lives or dies in saving the planet.  A few dead grandparents are a small price to pay to save Gaia.  It’s interesting that advocates sometimes say they are doing this for their grandchildren while their actions result in the death of current grandparents. It’s either incredibly selfish,or further proof that Kerry’s assessment of the intellect of Americans is way off base. (Some have not actually looked at the reality nor have they “done the maths” for what the reality of their ideas will cost.  Europe is dumping wind and solar–it’s unsustainable without a forest of money trees to prop it up.  That’s reality.)”

Scientific Badger

Scientific Badger

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